What is the outlook on the oil price

Current oil priceOil price news & oil price development

Brent crude oil continued to decline yesterday as well. The international oil marker is now only $ 65 a barrel. That's five dollars less than on Tuesday. The current price level had already been reached in February. Since then, the price of oil has made repeated attempts at the $ 70 mark. But so far without lasting success.

The steadiness and speed of the price slump indicate that especially short-term oriented speculators are withdrawing. They originally responded to inflation concerns, rising corona numbers in India, and reports that the nuclear negotiations between the West and Iran are moving forward. But meanwhile the sell-off has become independent, while other financial markets are already on the way up again.

The weakness in oil prices could therefore soon come to an end. The travel season begins in June in Europe and the USA. Most observers expect record numbers that will fuel gasoline and diesel consumption.

It is unclear whether and to what extent a return of Iran to the oil market will weigh on prices. The negotiations are apparently making progress, but could still fail, as very different interests play a role in both Tehran and Washington.

Another uncertainty is the response of the OPEC + cartel. It is possible that the cartel members postpone their planned production increase in the summer to make way for additional Iranian oil. This could mitigate the consequences for the oil price.

Iran currently produces around 2.2 million barrels a day and exports just under 1 million barrels of that. An end to the sanctions could bring an additional 1.0 to 1.5 million barrels per day onto the market. That was at least the order of magnitude in 2016, when the then nuclear deal came into force and the sanctions were lifted.

Barclays Capital's market watchers are currently assuming that the success of the negotiations will curb, but not stop, the rise in oil prices in the second half of the year. The additional quantities of oil are simply too small for this, because they only make up one to two percent of the world's oil supply. Should the negotiations fail unexpectedly, however, oil prices well above 70 dollars a barrel could be expected as early as the summer.

For now, however, traders are still busy reducing their bullish oil price bets. The pressure to sell continues early this morning.

The US crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently at 61.89 US dollars per barrel. The North Sea variety Brent costs US $ 64.89 per barrel. Rotterdam gas oil is trading at $ 534.75 per ton. The US dollar is worth 0.8172 euros. This brings the euro to $ 1.2234. The arrows show the change in prices compared to yesterday's start of trading.

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