Can Democrats win the house
Scenarios for an election victory : Biden before victory? Wisconsin also goes to the Democrats
Around 8:30 a.m. in Germany, Donald Trump declared himself the winner of the election, although not all votes have been counted, and announced that he would proceed against the counting of further votes. How exactly is currently unclear. Nevertheless - provided that no court is now stopping the counting with an emergency decision (which seems unlikely): How could it go on? Which roads lead to victory for Trump and Biden? And when can a result be expected? The following graphic shows the current status of the electorate. The data on the map is based on calculations by CNN.
The initial situation:
That night, Donald Trump took Florida a step towards a possible second election victory and also won important swing states that the Democrats had hoped for: Ohio and Texas.
After all, Joe Biden won as well as Arizona, a southern state that has long been red, i.e. Republican - at least AP and Fox have given the state to the Democrats. Nevada is also still open on Wednesday, but will likely go to the Democrats - a result is expected on Thursday.
What is still open?
First, the two states of North Carolina with 15 electors and Georgia with 16 electors. Georgia was once a deep red, so very republican state - but suddenly seemed within reach for the Democrats. The race is extremely close. North Carolina is known as the swing state - it's tight here too. Both states are relatively far with the count and could present results in the course of Wednesday.
Second: Pennsylvania (20 voters). Trump is ahead here. And according to the statistics website Fivethirtyeight, around a sixth of all votes are still to be counted. Trump is around 300,000 votes ahead, but most of the missing votes were also cast by postal vote. Here officials have indicated that reliable numbers may not be available until Thursday or Friday.
How can Biden win?
With the important victories in Michigan and Wisconsin proclaimed by US broadcasters, Joe Biden is close to his goal: All he needs is one state to win the election and it seems possible that the necessary count will be available on Wednesday evening (local time).
In Nevada, after evaluating more than 85 percent of the votes, Biden had already led as expected. The absent absentee ballot should also go in his direction, but it was unclear whether the new numbers would be enough for the media to declare a winner that evening. In Nevada, votes are also valid if they are received by November 10th, but no more than the postmark of election day on Tuesday.
In Georgia, Biden was a few ten thousand votes behind. Officials there had also expected results from other counties by 9:00 p.m. local time (3:00 a.m. German time), including Fulton County with the democratic metropolis Atlanta. Commentators thought it possible that the Democrat might turn the state around.
In Wisconsin, which was awarded Biden, it was ahead with around 20,000 votes, or around 0.7 percentage points, according to the preliminary full census. The Republicans announced that they would request a recount - in previous years only a few hundred votes had shifted.
The counting takes longer because of the high percentage of postal votes. The certification of these votes is often a lengthy process in the USA, and some signatures have to be compared individually with those of the electoral roll. In the three states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Republican Party had stopped efforts to open election envelopes before election Tuesday.
Pennsylvania, where it was and is much scarcer, doesn't need Biden. This is also relevant with a view to Trump's election contesting strategy. Because in Pennsylvania the Republicans had already complained against the counting of postal votes that arrive after election day. The Supreme Court has not yet made a final decision.
How can Trump win?
If Nevada and Arizona go to Biden, Trump needs a combination of four of the remaining states to win. He was the strongest on Wednesday in North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania - although hundreds of thousands of postal votes have yet to be counted in the latter state.
In the United States, citizens also elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives and a third of the hundred senators. How it turns out determines how much power and opportunities the new president will have to implement his plans. The majority of the 50 or so governors will also be redefined. You can see how the voting works here in the following graphics:
If you're wondering how exactly the US electoral system works, you've come to the right place:
For background information, you will also find the 20 most important questions about the US election, including likely scenarios:
The latest news from election night can be found in our US election live blog at this link.
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